Inflation has delayed till 2030 – which suggests for pensions, pupil loans, and extra
It was confirmed today that changes to the calculation of the retail price index (RPI) measure of inflation have been pushed back by five years from 2025 to 2030. The aim is to bring the calculations for the RPI in line with the newer consumer price index, including a measure of housing cost inflation (CPIH), which is considered to be more representative.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak has actually refused to agree to the change in the calculation, but the UK Statistics Service (UKSA), which is behind the proposals, can take the measures without Mr Sunak's approval as long as it waits until February 2030.
However, if these changes go into effect, they will have far-reaching ramifications, as the RPI is currently used to calculate price changes for everything from rail fares to student loan interest rates under 64% of defined benefit pension schemes – also known as final salary – systems – Use the RPI to calculate annual pension payments.
The problem is that the RPI traditionally tends to be higher than the CPIH – for example, the latest data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says the CPIH is 0.9%, compared to 1.3% for the RPI. This means that changes to the calculations can have negative effects for some, while likely benefiting others. We summarize the winners and losers below.